The college football chaos is about to peak — and Texas might be right on the edge of breaking through. The regular season has officially wrapped up, meaning it's finally time to shift our focus to the most anticipated moment of the year: the unveiling of the College Football Playoff rankings.
At this stage, eight programs look virtually guaranteed to make the 12-team playoff bracket, though their exact seedings remain to be determined:
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Texas A&M
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss*
- Oklahoma
*Assuming the selection committee doesn’t take issue with Lane Kiffin’s exit from Ole Miss.
These eight feel like safe bets regardless of how the conference championship games unfold. In other words, the teams playing for titles among this group likely have enough cushion to absorb a loss and still stay in the playoff picture.
Beyond that, two other spots are expected to go to conference champions who will likely land at seeds No. 11 and 12. Right now, the projection has Virginia capturing the ACC crown and securing the No. 11 spot. But there’s a twist: if Virginia is upset by a 7-5 Duke team, the ACC might be completely excluded from the playoff field — a scenario that would definitely spark debate. Duke wouldn’t crack the CFP’s Top 25 and might even rank behind Group of 5 champions like those from the American Athletic Conference or possibly the Mountain West or Sun Belt. Remember, only the top five highest-ranked FBS conference champions automatically earn playoff berths.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For this projection, the focus is on what the committee is likely to reveal this Tuesday before championship weekend. Virginia is penciled in as the projected ACC champion, while Miami, despite probably ranking higher overall, remains limited to at-large status. Tulane, representing the American, is the pick for No. 12 and should finish as the top Group of 5 champion.
Now it’s time to face the elephant in the room: the 9-3 Texas Longhorns. How close can they actually get to the playoff? Texas stands as the lone three-loss team that still warrants realistic playoff attention — a controversial position to say the least. According to projections, the Longhorns sit just behind 11-1 BYU and ahead of 10-2 Miami, effectively two spots away from making the CFP field.
Their résumé tells a compelling story: two wins over teams in the top eight and, by next week, three wins over top-15 opponents. That’s a portfolio strong enough to make the committee take notice. The head-to-head victory over Vanderbilt could finally push them ahead of the Commodores in the rankings. The big question, though, is how much the committee will hold their losses against them — especially the narrow seven-point defeat to No. 1 Ohio State. Texas played the Buckeyes closer than anyone else all season, which should count for something. On the other hand, their loss to a struggling 4-8 Florida team remains a glaring blemish.
Even so, head coach Steve Sarkisian makes a fair point: a 10-2 team with an unfortunate misstep might still deserve a slot. After all, it’s not so different from Alabama’s rough outing earlier in the season. The committee faces a tricky balance here. If teams like Texas are overly punished for scheduling powerhouse nonconference opponents like Ohio State, it could discourage similar matchups in the future — and that would make college football a little less exciting.
When all is said and done, Texas has enough quality wins to climb from roughly No. 16 to No. 12. Their final position could depend heavily on the Big 12 championship outcome. If BYU tumbles against Texas Tech — especially in a blowout — the door opens wider for the Longhorns to sneak in. Ironically, a bit of chaos among the top teams might give Texas the break it needs.
There’s another subtle factor, too. The committee might prefer an extra buffer team between Notre Dame and Miami to avoid reopening that Week 1 head-to-head debate. That’s another reason Texas could jump Miami despite the Hurricanes’ solid finish.
What remains most uncertain is how much weight the committee will give to championship weekend results. Selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek has hinted that movements will happen based on those outcomes, but no one knows exactly how drastic the shuffling could be.
So what do you think? Should a three-loss Texas team still have a chance if its schedule and performance stack up better than teams with cleaner records? Or should the committee strictly reward fewer losses, no matter the context? Drop your thoughts — this is where the debate really begins.
