Bold claim: the Tigers are hunting for a reliable starting pitcher, and Brad Keller is squarely in the mix. That’s the takeaway from Evan Petzold’s report in the Detroit Free Press this afternoon, which noted Detroit’s interest in Keller as a starter even after agreeing to terms with swingman Drew Anderson. A one-year deal with a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2021 wouldn’t automatically rule Keller out of the running for a rotation spot, but it does complicate the short-term cap and plans.
Keller is finishing a breakout season as a reliever for the Cubs, delivering 69 2/3 innings with a 2.07 ERA. By season’s end, he had become Craig Counsell’s go-to leverage arm, posting 25 holds and three saves while surrendering only three leads all year. His second-half surge was particularly noteworthy: in 27 2/3 frames, he allowed just one run and struck out 35 hitters. He also added two saves and a hold in the playoffs, pitching effectively when the stakes were highest.
The underlying metrics support a favorable view, even if they aren’t overwhelming. Keller fanned about 27.2% of batters against an 8% walk rate, and induced ground balls at a solid 56.5% clip, placing him among the more ground-ball-prone relievers with 50+ innings. The notable concern is a swinging-strike rate around 10.8%, a shade below the league average of roughly 11.5%. Overall, the peripherals suggest a pitcher who can handle multiple roles and adapt depending on how the team wants to deploy him.
Given Keller’s track record and versatility, several clubs are expected to explore him as a reliever with rotation potential. Our earlier Top 50 Free Agents piece anticipated that some teams would view him as a candidate for a conversion to a starter, given his substantial starting experience with the Royals over six seasons. His early-career success came from heavy use of ground balls at the back end of the rotation, but his performance dipped from 2021 to 2023, culminating in thoracic outlet syndrome surgery ahead of the 2024 season. Limited looks with the White Sox and Red Sox in 2024 were not encouraging, leading him to sign a minor league contract with the Cubs last winter. He rebounded as a reliever, earning a bullpen role and rising to the top of the relief corps fairly quickly.
While the thoracic outlet surgery can give clubs pause, there’s room for optimism if Keller returns to a starting role. He continued to lean on a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen and performed well against left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 line with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Command isn’t pristine, but he has shown enough control to function as a middle-to-late innings option as a starter if he remains stretched out.
MLB Trade Rumors’ projection pegged Keller at three years and $36 million, a framework that could support a transition back to a starting role. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted Keller’s trajectory toward a three-year deal in early discussions. The Tigers haven’t given a free-agent contract longer than two seasons under president of baseball operations Scott Harris, but Keller’s fit aligns with Detroit’s strategy of targeting middle-tier talent that can fill multiple roles.
Detroit’s rotation landscape features Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize at the top four spots. Troy Melton is the internal favorite for the fifth spot, with competition from Anderson, Keider Montero, and Sawyer Gipson-Long. There’s also a practical path for Keller as a fallback: he could open the season in a rotation competition and, if unable to secure a start, contribute in high-leverage relief work. In short, Keller’s combination of experience, current form, and versatility makes him a credible option for the Tigers as they shape a pitching staff for the year ahead.
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