Bold claim: XRP is flashing a signal from the same playbook that preceded a 580% surge last year, and the market is watching closely to see if history rhymes with today. XRP’s charts have lit up with a familiar setup: the 3-day RSI has sunk to a level near its November 2024 low, the precise reading that preceded a dramatic rally. In November 2024, XRP’s 3-day RSI bottomed around 39, and the price vaulted from about $0.50 to $3.40 by January 2025, a roughly 580% gain. Now, the same 3-day RSI pattern is reappearing, with the latest three-day candle ending as the RSI crossed its signal line, crafting a bullish structure that previously preceded the November 2024 breakout. The question on every trader’s mind: will history repeat itself?
What the 3-Day RSI conveys
The 3-day RSI is the Relative Strength Index calculated over a three-day window. This approach smooths out day-to-day noise and highlights momentum over a slightly longer horizon. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions—bearish selling has exhausted itself—while readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions, where buying enthusiasm may have ramped up too far.
The RSI reveals not just direction but strength: when values are extreme, it signals potential reversals or accelerations. A dip to a low RSI on this timeframe often signals that sellers are losing steam and buyers may soon step in, setting the stage for a bounce.
Current RSI Setup vs. November 2024
As of now, XRP’s 3-day RSI has fallen to roughly 39, the lowest it has been in over a year since the November 2024 trough. That same reading was followed by a powerful rally back then, with XRP leaping about 580% from $0.50 to $3.40 in a couple of months. Market observers note a striking similarity between the present setup and that prior pattern. Across multiple timeframes, this RSI signal has preceded notable rallies—appearing in April, June, and November 2024, each time coinciding with a meaningful price move.
Five bullish indicators in play
Several technical signals are lining up for XRP right now. Here are the standout patterns traders are monitoring:
1) 3-Day RSI at multi-month lows
XRP’s 3-day RSI sits near 39, echoing a historically sharp oversold point that previously marked a turning point into a strong uptrend. If past behavior repeats, this could herald another significant relief rally.
2) Recurring 3-Day RSI bullish crossover
A pattern has emerged on XRP’s 3-day chart: the asset closes a 3-day candle with the RSI crossing above its moving average, following a bullish signal-line cross. This setup has reappeared in early December 2025 and similarly occurred in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025, each time preceding a major rally. Traders view this as a high-probability bullish signal.
3) Weekly RSI golden cross
On the weekly timeframe, a rare RSI golden cross has appeared, where the 14-week RSI rises above the 34-week moving average. This exact cross first surfaced on November 4, 2024, just before XRP surged more than fivefold into early 2025. With the cross forming again near a breakout above a long-term resistance trendline, many analysts interpret this as a robust, long-horizon bullish signal.
4) Bullish chart patterns: double bottom with divergence
Longer-term charts show a classic bullish setup: a double-bottom with hidden bullish divergence on XRP’s weekly chart. Price makes two comparable lows while the RSI makes higher lows, a configuration that often precedes a breakout. One analyst suggests this could drive XRP toward the $4.50–$5 range, especially when paired with other positive signals.
5) Volatility squeeze ahead of a move
XRP has spent about 32 weeks in a tight trading range, with Bollinger Bands constricting to their narrowest levels in over eight months. Such squeezes often precede sharp moves once volatility expands. Coupled with bullish momentum indicators and a looming upside possibility, this environment hints at an eventual breakout to the upside if volume and momentum pick up.
Price outlook scenarios through early 2026
Even with a generally constructive setup, XRP could move in several directions. Here are three plausible paths:
Bullish scenario
If XRP breaks decisively above the January 2025 high around $3.33, the door could open toward $5.85, aligning with a 261.8% Fibonacci extension. In a strong bull market supported by sustained ETF demand, rising institutional interest, and stable macro conditions, targets could extend into the mid-to-high single digits, potentially testing the $8–$9 region and even higher in an especially favorable environment.
Base scenario
In a more moderate outcome, XRP might drift higher but remain in a broad range, trading roughly between $2 and $4 into late 2025. Resistance near $2.70–$3.30 could get tested, with a relief rally potentially lifting the price into the low single digits when broader crypto markets lift.
Bearish scenario
If XRP fails to push higher or faces a renewed sell-off driven by policy shifts or adverse market conditions, it could retreat toward last year’s support around $1.60–$2.00. A breach of the $2 level could push XRP into the mid-$1s, requiring a fresh setup before another rally attempt.
Calls to action and considerations
The setup is compelling, but remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. If you’re considering trading or investing, weigh the risk of a pullback against the potential upside, and monitor additional signals such as volume spikes, MACD momentum, and key support-resistance levels. What’s your view: does XRP’s current RSI signal merit a bold bet on a renewed rally, or do macro uncertainties justify a more cautious stance? Share your take in the comments below.
